Business Research Proposal: The Future of Space-Based AI Computing

1. Strategic Rationale Summary: A concise explanation of the core economic, technical, and geopolitical drivers fueling the push for AI computing in space.
2. Market Opportunity Forecast: An assessment of the potential market size and growth for both the near-term (1-3 years) and long-term (7+ years), identifying the most promising initial use cases.
3. Stakeholder Impact Analysis: A detailed map illustrating the specific opportunities and threats this trend poses to different stakeholders, including:
   • Hyperscalers (e.g., Google, Amazon, Microsoft)
   • AI Model Developers (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic)
   • Specialized Startups (e.g., Starcloud)
   • End-Users (e.g., in defense, agriculture, finance)
   • Government & Defense Agencies
4. Competitive Landscape & Value Chain: An analysis of the emerging industry structure, identifying key players, potential bottlenecks, and control points in the value chain (from launch providers to end-application developers).
5. Strategic Recommendations & Key Indicators: Actionable advice for a specific stakeholder (e.g., a venture capital firm or a large tech company) on how to approach this market, along with 3-5 key leading indicators to monitor that would signal major shifts in the trend's trajectory.

Part 1: Information Collection Plan

Recommended Frameworks & Rationale

• Framework Teaching:
  • PESTLE Analysis stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental. It's a framework used to scan the macro-environmental factors that can impact an organization or industry. It helps you understand the "big picture" forces at play.
  • Porter's Five Forces is a tool for analyzing the competitive intensity and, therefore, the attractiveness of an industry. The five forces are: Threat of New Entrants, Bargaining Power of Buyers, Bargaining Power of Suppliers, Threat of Substitute Products or Services, and Rivalry Among Existing Competitors.
• Applicability Explanation:
  • This problem is perfect for this combination because space-based AI is not just a technological shift; it's deeply intertwined with massive economic investments, geopolitical strategy, and complex legal questions. PESTLE allows you to systematically map these broad external drivers (the "context" and "rationale").
  • Simultaneously, a new industry is forming. Porter's Five Forces will provide a structured way to analyze its potential profitability and power dynamics, helping you understand the long-term business implications for stakeholders.

Web Search Plan

• PESTLE Framework Searches:
  • Political/Legal: Search for "geopolitical implications of space computing infrastructure," "international space law data sovereignty," and "export controls on satellite technology".
    • Analysis Purpose: To understand the national security drivers, regulatory hurdles, and potential for international conflict or cooperation. This is critical for assessing market risk and long-term viability.
  • Economic: Search for "economic viability of AI computing in space," "cost to launch satellite to LEO 2025," and "satellite data services market size".
    • Analysis Purpose: To quantify the business case. Understanding launch costs, market size, and the economics versus terrestrial data centers is the foundation of your market opportunity analysis.
  • Technological: Search for "Google Project Suncatcher TPU," "Starcloud H100 GPU payload," "technical challenges GPUs in space radiation cooling," and "latency benefits of AI inference in orbit".
    • Analysis Purpose: To grasp the core technical drivers and hurdles. This information feeds directly into understanding the value proposition (e.g., lower latency) and the risks (e.g., thermal management).
• Porter's Five Forces Searches:
  • Threat of Substitutes: Search for "alternatives to space-based AI computing" and "edge computing vs. space computing".
    • Analysis Purpose: To determine if terrestrial or near-edge computing can solve the same problems, which defines the uniqueness of the space-based value proposition.
  • Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Search for "major satellite manufacturers," "cost of satellite bus," and review launch cost data.
    • Analysis Purpose: To assess if a few powerful suppliers (like launch providers or specialized component makers) can control costs and limit the profitability of new entrants.
  • Competitive Rivalry: Search for "competitors in space computing," and news on "Google Project Suncatcher" and "Starcloud".
    • Analysis Purpose: To map the current players and understand the intensity of competition, which is central to the competitive landscape section of your report.

User Interview Plan

• Interview Subjects:
  1. Technical Experts: Engineers from satellite manufacturing firms or aerospace research institutions.
  2. Potential Customers: Data scientists or strategists in sectors like agriculture, defense, climate monitoring, or finance who rely on satellite data.
  3. Industry Investors: Venture capitalists specializing in "Deep Tech," "Space Tech," or "AI Infrastructure".
  4. Ecosystem Players: Product managers or strategists from major cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud).
• Core Interview Questions & Analysis Purpose:
  • For Technical Experts:
    • Question: "Beyond launch costs, what are the top three engineering challenges to achieving a 5-year operational lifespan for a GPU cluster in Low Earth Orbit? How mature are the solutions for thermal management and radiation hardening?"
    • Analysis Purpose: To pressure-test the technical feasibility claims made by companies and identify hidden risks for the "Technological" part of your PESTLE analysis.
  • For Potential Customers:
    • Question: "Describe a business problem where processing AI models directly on a satellite, rather than on the ground, would create a significant new revenue stream or cost-saving opportunity for you. What is the value of reducing latency from hours to seconds?"
    • Analysis Purpose: To validate the demand side of the equation and identify the most valuable "killer apps." This is crucial for defining the "Bargaining Power of Buyers" and for your market opportunity forecast.
  • For Industry Investors:
    • Question: "When evaluating a startup in space computing, what are the key milestones you would look for before making a Series A investment? Are you more concerned with the technical risk, market risk, or the capital intensity of the business?"
    • Analysis Purpose: To understand the financing landscape and the path to viability for new companies. This directly informs the "Threat of New Entrants" and your strategic recommendations.
  • For Ecosystem Players:
    • Question: "How do you view space-based computing in relation to your existing global cloud and edge infrastructure? Is it a complementary extension, a niche market, or a potential long-term disruptor to your current business model?"
    • Analysis Purpose: To gauge the reaction of incumbents. Their strategy (e.g., build, buy, or ignore) will fundamentally shape the competitive landscape. This is key for analyzing "Competitive Rivalry."

Part 2: Information Analysis Plan

1. Synthesize Macro-Factors with PESTLE Analysis:
   • How to do it: Create a six-section chart for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental factors. Populate each section with the findings from your web searches and interviews.
   • Example in action:
     • Under Political, note the geopolitical tensions driving countries to seek sovereign AI capabilities.
     • Under Economic, list the projected launch costs from SpaceX and competitors, and the addressable market size for satellite data analytics.
     • Under Technological, detail the specific challenges of radiation and cooling discussed by engineers.
   • Your goal: Use this synthesis to write the "Strategic Rationale Summary" of your final report, explaining why this trend is happening now.
2. Analyze Industry Attractiveness with Porter's Five Forces:
   • How to do it: Address each of the five forces individually, using the data you've gathered to score the force as "High," "Medium," or "Low."
   • Example in action:
     • Threat of New Entrants: This is likely "Low to Medium." While ideas are many, the immense capital required for R&D and launch creates a high barrier to entry. Your interviews with VCs will confirm this.
     • Bargaining Power of Suppliers: This is "High." There are a limited number of proven launch providers (e.g., SpaceX) and specialized chip manufacturers. This gives them significant leverage on price.
   • Your goal: This analysis forms the core of your "Competitive Landscape & Value Chain" section. It helps you determine whether this will be a profitable industry and who will hold the power within it.
3. Map Stakeholder Opportunities & Threats:
   • How to do it: Create a matrix with stakeholders on the Y-axis and "Opportunities" and "Threats" on the X-axis. Fill in the boxes by cross-referencing your PESTLE and Porter's analyses.
   • Example in action:
     • For a Hyperscaler (like Google): The PESTLE analysis shows an economic driver (high energy cost on Earth), creating an Opportunity to offload computation to space. A threat, from the Five Forces analysis, is the high supplier power of launch providers, which could squeeze margins.
     • For an AI Model Developer: An Opportunity is the ability to train models on massive, real-time datasets (like satellite imagery) without massive data downloads. A Threat is that the owners of the space infrastructure could become gatekeepers, controlling access and pricing.
   • Your goal: This matrix directly becomes the "Stakeholder Impact Analysis" section of your final report.
4. Develop Strategic Recommendations and Identify Key Indicators:
   • How to do it: Step back and look at the complete picture. Your PESTLE analysis explained the 'why,' the Five Forces explained the 'where to play,' and the stakeholder map showed 'who wins/loses.' Now, you can provide advice.
   • Example in action:
     • Recommendation for a VC Firm: "Based on high technical risk but significant geopolitical and economic drivers, the optimal strategy is to fund startups focused on solving a single, critical technical bottleneck (e.g., radiation-hardened memory or novel cooling systems) rather than vertically integrated solutions. This creates valuable IP that can be acquired by larger players."
     • Key Indicators to Watch: 1) The actual price-per-kilogram for launch on next-gen rockets (e.g., Starship). 2) The successful multi-year operation of the first H100/TPU in orbit, proving the technical viability. 3) Any new international treaties or national regulations on in-orbit data.
   • Your goal: This is the culmination of your research, delivering the actionable "Strategic Recommendations & Key Indicators" part of your report and fulfilling your primary objective as a consultant.