Business Research Proposal: Analyzing the 2025 US Government Shutdown

1. Research Objective Definition

• User Profile: You are a junior consultant who needs to provide your client or senior partner with a clear, data-driven perspective on a major external risk. Your output must be structured, insightful, and lead to concrete business implications.
• Problem Category: This is a Macro-Environmental Analysis and a Risk Assessment. We are analyzing a major political and economic event to understand its cascading impacts and formulate strategic responses.
• Research Final Output: Your final deliverable should not just answer the three questions but synthesize them into a strategic brief. It should include:
  1. Situational Analysis: A detailed report on the shutdown's current impact, focusing on aviation but also including other identified sectors.
  2. Impact Assessment: A clear breakdown of the direct, indirect, and systemic risks the shutdown poses to a typical US business (e.g., operational disruptions, supply chain delays, decreased consumer demand).
  3. Scenario Forecast: An outline of 2-3 plausible future scenarios based on the administration's potential actions and the political climate (e.g., "Short-Term Resolution," "Extended Stalemate").
  4. Strategic Recommendations: A set of actionable recommendations for a business to mitigate risks and potentially identify opportunities within each scenario.
  5. Monitoring Dashboard: A list of key leading indicators to watch that will signal which scenario is becoming more likely.

2. Recommended Analytical Framework

• Framework Explanation:
  • PESTLE Analysis: This is a strategic tool used to identify, organize, and analyze the key external macro-environmental factors that can impact an organization. The acronym stands for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental. It forces a broad and systematic view of the external landscape.
  • Scenario Planning: This is a strategic planning method used to make flexible long-term plans in the face of uncertainty. Instead of trying to predict a single future, you create several plausible "stories" about the future (scenarios) and then develop strategies that would be robust across them.
• Applicability to Your Problem:
  • The government shutdown is a classic macro-environmental shock, making PESTLE the perfect tool to systematically categorize its wide-ranging effects beyond just the obvious airport disruptions. It will help you structure your answer to the first two questions in your prompt.
  • The future course of the shutdown and the administration's response are highly uncertain. Scenario Planning is the ideal framework to address this uncertainty, allowing you to explore the potential consequences of different political outcomes and provide your client with proactive, rather than reactive, advice. This directly addresses the third question in your prompt.
• Key Information to Collect for Framework Application:
  • Political: Details on the legislative deadlock, key political figures' stances, public statements from the Trump administration, and potential negotiation points.
  • Economic: Data on flight cancellations, estimated GDP impact, effects on specific industries (tourism, logistics), and changes in consumer confidence.
  • Social: Public sentiment, traveler frustration levels, media coverage tone, and impacts on government employees.
  • Legal: Information on the FAA's authority, potential for fines, and the legal basis for shutting down specific government services.
  • Technological/Environmental: Secondary impacts, such as delays in federally funded research grants or suspension of services from agencies like the EPA or National Parks.

Part 1: Information Collection Plan

A. Web Search Plan

• Search Topics:
  1. FAA Flight Disruption Details: Gather specifics on the number of flights cut, the list of affected airports, and statements from the FAA and airlines. The initial order is for a 10% cut in flights at 40 major airports. This began with a 4% reduction and is expected to ramp up.
     • Analysis Purpose: This provides the core quantitative data for the 'Economic' and 'Legal' sections of your PESTLE framework.
  2. Other Affected Government Services: Look for information on disruptions at other federal agencies with domestic or global reach, such as National Parks, passport/visa services, federal research grants (NIH), and food assistance programs (SNAP).
     • Analysis Purpose: This is critical for building a comprehensive PESTLE analysis, adding depth to the 'Social', 'Political', and 'Technological' dimensions beyond the initial aviation focus.
  3. Administration's Position and Plans: Search for official statements from the White House, the Department of Transportation, and key administration figures regarding the shutdown. Look for their stated goals, negotiation stances, and proposed solutions.
     • Analysis Purpose: This information is the primary fuel for developing your scenarios. It helps you understand the motivations and potential actions of a key actor in the crisis.
  4. Economic & Historical Precedent: Research the estimated economic cost of the current shutdown and compare it to previous shutdowns. Look for data on GDP impact, costs to specific sectors, and effects on small businesses.
     • Analysis Purpose: This provides crucial context, helps validate the assumptions you'll make in your 'Economic' analysis, and grounds your scenarios in historical reality.

B. User Interview Plan

• Interview Subjects:
  1. Frequent Business Travelers (e.g., corporate consultants, sales executives): Individuals whose work is directly impacted by flight reliability.
  2. Leisure Travelers: Individuals or families with upcoming vacation plans that may be affected.
  3. Small Business Owners (in travel-adjacent industries): Such as restaurant or hotel owners near a major affected airport, or those who rely on federal contracts or loans.
• Interview Purpose: To gather firsthand accounts of the shutdown's impact on business operations, consumer confidence, and personal decision-making. This qualitative data will primarily inform the 'Social' and 'Economic' dimensions of your PESTLE analysis.
• Core Interview Questions:
  1. "Can you describe any changes or challenges you've experienced or anticipate with your business/personal travel plans since the flight reductions were announced?"
     • Analysis Purpose: To identify specific pain points (e.g., lost time, rebooking costs, meeting cancellations) and gauge the immediate economic and social consequences.
  2. "How has the news about the shutdown and potential for escalating disruptions influenced your confidence in booking future travel or making significant business/personal financial commitments?"
     • Analysis Purpose: To measure sentiment and behavioral shifts, which are key inputs for forecasting demand and assessing broader economic impact in your scenarios.
  3. "Beyond the immediate travel issue, what are your biggest concerns regarding the shutdown's impact on your business, your family, or the economy in general?"
     • Analysis Purpose: To uncover second-order effects and less obvious risks that can be incorporated into the broader PESTLE analysis and add richness to your scenario narratives.

Part 2: Information Analysis Plan

• How to Execute:
  • Political: Enter details about the political deadlock, statements from the Trump administration blaming Democrats, and court cases related to the shutdown.
  • Economic: Input the hard numbers: daily flight cancellations, estimated GDP loss per week, impact on small business loans, and ripple effects on tourism. Also, include qualitative themes from interviews about lost business opportunities.
  • Social: Add interview quotes expressing traveler frustration and uncertainty. Include data on impacts to National Parks, food assistance programs, and federal worker morale.
  • Technological: Note any reported pauses in federal research funding (e.g., NIH, NSF) or slowdowns in tech-related government services.
  • Legal: Document the FAA's authority to cut flights, the fines mentioned, and any court orders related to government services like SNAP.
  • Environmental: Mention the closure of National Parks and the suspension of non-essential EPA services.

• How to Execute:
  1. Create a 2x2 Matrix: Draw a four-quadrant matrix. Label the X-axis "Shutdown Duration" (from "Short-Term" to "Prolonged Stalemate") and the Y-axis "Impact Severity" (from "Contained Disruption" to "Widespread Systemic Failure").
  2. Name Each Scenario: This creates four plausible futures. For example:
     • Top-Left: "Brief Turbulence" (Short Duration, Contained Disruption)
     • Top-Right: "Grinding Halt" (Prolonged Duration, Contained Disruption)
     • Bottom-Left: "Sudden Shock" (Short Duration, Widespread Failure)
     • Bottom-Right: "System Overload" (Prolonged Duration, Widespread Failure)
  3. Write Scenario Narratives: For each quadrant, write a short paragraph describing what that future looks like, using the data from your PESTLE analysis. For "System Overload," you might write about escalating flight cuts to 20%, major backlogs in visa processing, and visible strain on the national supply chain.

• How to Execute:
  • Brainstorm Impacts per Scenario: For each of the four scenarios, ask: "What does this mean for our company's travel, supply chain, sales, and employee welfare?"
  • Develop "No-Regret" Moves: Identify actions that would be beneficial regardless of which scenario unfolds.
    • Example action: "Immediately implement a policy requiring employees to add an extra 90 minutes to airport arrival times and favor direct flights over connections to minimize disruption risk."
  • Develop "Contingent" Strategies: Define trigger points and the specific actions to take if they are met.
    • Example action: "If average daily flight cancellations exceed 2,500 for three consecutive days (a trigger for the 'System Overload' scenario), the company will freeze all non-essential domestic air travel and authorize rental cars for travel under 400 miles."

• How to Execute:
  • Identify Leading Indicators: From your research, pull out the key data points that signal a shift from one scenario to another.
  • Build the Dashboard List: Create a simple list of indicators to monitor weekly.
    • Example Indicators:
      • Political: Public statements from Congressional and White House leaders (tone of compromise vs. conflict).
      • Economic: Average daily number of canceled flights nationwide.
      • Social: TSA/Air Traffic Controller absentee rates.
      • Legal: Any new directives issued by the FAA or court rulings on federal services.

Business Research Proposal: Analyzing the November 2025 U.S. Government Shutdown

1. Prioritized Risk Watchlist: A ranked list of the next 3-5 critical government services most likely to face major disruption, with an assessment of their potential domestic and global impact scale.
2. Administration Strategy Memo: A clear analysis of the Trump administration's strategic goals, primary bargaining chips, and non-negotiable points in the current crisis.
3. Scenario Outlook: A description of 2-3 plausible scenarios for how the shutdown will proceed and resolve over the next 1-3 months (e.g., quick compromise, prolonged stalemate, escalation).
4. Key Indicator Dashboard: A list of 5-7 specific signals to monitor that will indicate which scenario is becoming more likely.

Recommended Analytical Frameworks

• Framework Explanation:
  • PESTLE Analysis: This is a tool for scanning the macro-environment. It prompts you to analyze the Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental factors surrounding an issue. It ensures you don't develop tunnel vision and consider a wide range of second- and third-order effects.
  • Stakeholder & Strategy Analysis: This framework focuses on identifying the key players in a complex situation and mapping their interests, power, and strategies. It helps deconstruct a negotiation by asking: Who are the players? What do they want (goals)? What is their power (leverage)? What are they likely to do next?
• Applicability to Your Problem:
  • The shutdown's effects are not just political; they are economic (flight cancellations), social (WIC program), and technological/legal (research grants, permits). PESTLE provides a structured way to brainstorm and categorize the "next critical services to be affected."
  • The core of the crisis is a strategic negotiation between the White House and Congress. A Stakeholder & Strategy Analysis is essential for understanding the administration's calculus, predicting their future plans, and not taking public statements at face value.

Part 1: Information Collection

Web Search Content

• Search Queries:

  1. "list of US federal agencies affected by government shutdown 2025"

     and

     "US government services funded by discretionary spending"

     • Purpose: To identify the universe of at-risk services. Shutdowns primarily affect discretionary spending, not mandatory programs like Social Security. This helps create a master list for your PESTLE analysis.

  2. "impact of US government shutdown on global supply chains and trade"

     and

     "global impact of US government shutdown"

     • Purpose: To find services whose disruption has international consequences, a key part of your client's question. This will gather data on issues like customs delays, which impact global commerce.

  3. "Trump administration demands for ending 2025 government shutdown"

     and

     "congressional leaders' response to 2025 government shutdown proposals"

     • Purpose: To gather the raw data for your Stakeholder & Strategy analysis. This will capture the stated goals and negotiation points of the White House and Congress.

  4. "past government shutdown negotiation tactics and outcomes"

     • Purpose: To provide historical context for your strategy analysis. Understanding how previous shutdowns ended provides clues about potential resolutions for the current one.

Expert Interview Planning

• Interview Subjects: You need insights that go beyond news reports. Seek out individuals with deep, contextual knowledge.
  • Political Analysts/Journalists: Specialists who cover the White House and Congress.
  • Former Senior Government Officials: Individuals who have previously worked at the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) or in leadership at federal agencies.
  • Industry Lobbyists: Representatives from critically affected sectors (e.g., aviation, healthcare, defense contracting) who have real-time information on operational impacts.
• Interview Purpose: To pressure-test public information and understand the unstated strategic calculus and potential second-order impacts.
• Core Interview Questions:
  1. "The airport disruption is the most visible impact right now. In your view, what is the most under-the-radar government function that could cause a similar level of systemic disruption if it degrades further?"
     • Analysis Purpose: This question is designed to elicit non-obvious candidates for your PESTLE analysis and help prioritize your risk watchlist.
  2. "Publicly, the administration is focused on [Stated Goal A] and Congress is focused on [Stated Goal B]. Based on your experience, what do you believe are the real, non-negotiable objectives for each side versus what might be a bargaining chip?"
     • Analysis Purpose: This directly feeds the "Underlying Interests" and "Leverage/Tactics" sections of your Stakeholder & Strategy Analysis, helping to separate political theater from true intent.
  3. "What specific event or signal—a market reaction, a statement from a specific leader, a new operational failure—would tell you that one side is about to fold or that the crisis is about to escalate dramatically?"
     • Analysis Purpose: The answers to this question are the foundation for your "Key Indicator Dashboard," making your final output highly practical and forward-looking.

Part 2: Information Analysis

• Step A: Map the Disruptions: Create a six-column table for Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal, and Environmental. Go through your web search results (lists of discretionary agencies, reports on global impact) and interview notes, placing each affected service or function into the relevant column(s). For example, "CDC disease surveillance" falls under Social and Political. "Delays in federal permits for energy projects" falls under Economic, Legal, and Environmental.
• Step B: Score the Impacts: For each item on your PESTLE map, score it on two dimensions:
  1. Severity of Impact (1-5): How crippling is the disruption? (e.g., FAA flight cuts are a 5).
  2. Scope of Impact (1-5): How broad is the disruption? (1 = niche domestic, 5 = major global).
• Step C: Create a Prioritization Matrix: Draw a 2x2 matrix with "Severity of Impact" on the Y-axis and "Scope of Impact" on the X-axis. Plot the services from your scored list onto this matrix. The services that land in the top-right quadrant (High Severity, High Scope) are your top candidates for the "Prioritized Risk Watchlist." This gives you a data-driven rationale for your choices.

• Step A: Profile the Key Stakeholders: Create a profile for each major actor (e.g., Trump Administration, Senate Republicans, Senate Democrats). For each, use your research and interview notes to fill in:
  • Public Position: What they are saying officially.
  • Underlying Interest: What they likely want to achieve politically or policy-wise (e.g., secure policy concessions, avoid blame for the shutdown, energize their base).
  • Primary Leverage: The main tool they are using (e.g., veto power, Senate filibuster, control of the public narrative).
• Step B: Analyze the Strategic Interaction: Compare the profiles. Where do their interests clash directly? Where is there potential for a partial compromise? Your analysis of past shutdowns will be critical here. For example, does the administration historically concede when airport delays become politically untenable? This analysis forms the core of your "Administration Strategy Memo."
• Step C: Build Scenarios: Based on the strategic interaction, outline 2-3 plausible paths forward. Don't predict the future; describe the possibilities.
  • Scenario 1: "Quick Compromise." What would a deal look like? What would each side have to give up to get there quickly?
  • Scenario 2: "Prolonged Stalemate." What happens if neither side blinks? What other services begin to fail? What does the political and economic environment look like in 1-2 months?
  • Scenario 3: "Crisis Escalation." What action could one side take that dramatically raises the stakes (e.g., the administration declaring a national emergency to bypass Congress)?