Business Research Proposal: Mapping the UPF-Metabolic Disorder Relationship

Recommended Framework: Systems Thinking with Causal Loop Diagrams & 5 Whys Analysis

• Causal Loop Diagram (CLD): The relationship between food, health, marketing, and policy is not a simple straight line; it's a complex system of interconnected parts. A CLD is a visual tool from the field of systems thinking used to map these relationships. We will identify the key variables in the system (e.g., UPF consumption, obesity rates, marketing budgets) and draw arrows between them to show how they influence one another. This helps us visualize feedback loops (e.g., how marketing drives sales, which in turn funds more marketing) and identify the most powerful points for intervention.
• 5 Whys Analysis: This is a simple but profound root cause analysis technique. For any given finding (e.g., "Consumers choose UPFs for convenience"), we will repeatedly ask "Why?" to drill down past the surface-level answer and uncover the fundamental drivers of that behavior or outcome.

Part 1: Information Collection

A. Web Search Plan

1. Scientific Consensus on Health Outcomes:
   • Queries:

     systematic review "ultra-processed foods" AND "metabolic syndrome" 2024 2025

     ,

     ultra-processed foods and adverse health outcomes umbrella review

   • Purpose: To establish the core causal link in our diagram. We will synthesize the latest high-level evidence on which health outcomes (obesity, T2DM, hypertension) are most strongly and consistently linked to UPF consumption. This forms the central axis of our analysis.
2. Global Consumption & Demographic Patterns:
   • Queries:

     global trends in ultra-processed food consumption by country 2025

     ,

     socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing UPF consumption

   • Purpose: To understand the scale and distribution of the problem. This data will identify high-risk countries and demographic groups (e.g., based on age, income, education), helping to add crucial context and population variables to our CLD.
3. Corporate and Marketing Strategies:
   • Queries:

     marketing strategies for ultra-processed food products

     ,

     "food industry" marketing tactics UPF

     ,

     how ultra-processed foods are designed for hyper-palatability

   • Purpose: To map the commercial drivers of consumption. This information will allow us to add key variables to our diagram like "Marketing Spend," "Product Formulation" (e.g., use of additives, hyper-palatability), and "Packaging Strategies," which are critical levers in the system.
4. Regulatory and Policy Environment:
   • Queries:

     effectiveness of government regulations on UPFs

     ,

     front-of-pack labeling policies global

     ,

     junk food tax results

     ,

     ultra-processed food school policies Brazil

   • Purpose: To map the forces that are currently trying to balance the system. We will identify different policy approaches (e.g., taxes, marketing bans, labeling) and their effectiveness, which will populate the "Government/Regulatory" portion of our CLD.
5. Physiological Mechanisms:
   • Queries:

     physiological mechanisms of ultra-processed foods on metabolic health

     ,

     UPF additives impact on gut microbiome

   • Purpose: To understand the biological "how." This information helps explain the link between consumption and disease on a cellular level (e.g., inflammation, gut dysbiosis, hormonal disruption) and adds a layer of biological plausibility to our causal map.

B. User Interview Plan

• Interview Subject Groups:
  1. Consumers: A mix of individuals from high-risk demographic groups identified in the web search (e.g., younger, urban, varying income levels). Include some who have been diagnosed with a metabolic disorder and some who have not.
  2. Healthcare Professionals: Doctors, dietitians, or public health nurses who work directly with patients suffering from metabolic disorders.
  3. Policy Experts/Academics: Researchers or advocates who have studied or worked on food policy and regulation.
• Core Interview Questions:
  • For Consumers:
    1. "Can you walk me through your food choices on a typical busy day? What influences those decisions?"
       • Analysis Purpose: To understand the situational context (time pressure, stress, environment) and key decision drivers (cost, convenience, taste) that lead to choosing UPFs. This helps identify the real-world "jobs" that consumers "hire" UPFs to do.
    2. "Think about the last time you bought a packaged snack or meal. What on the packaging or in the store caught your attention?"
       • Analysis Purpose: To understand the effectiveness of marketing and packaging strategies from the consumer's perspective, providing a direct link to the corporate behavior variables in our CLD.
    3. "Have you ever tried to eat more 'healthy' or 'fresh' foods? What were the biggest hurdles you faced?"
       • Analysis Purpose: To identify the barriers to change. These barriers (e.g., cost, availability, cooking skills, time) are critical variables that may be reinforcing the reliance on UPFs.
  • For Healthcare Professionals:
    1. "From your perspective, what are the biggest misconceptions your patients have about the food they eat?"
       • Analysis Purpose: To assess the level of public health literacy and identify gaps in understanding that may be exploited by marketing, which is a key variable in our system map.
    2. "When you advise patients on diet, what are the most common practical challenges they report back to you?"
       • Analysis Purpose: To get an expert, aggregated view of the consumer barriers, validating and adding context to what we hear directly from consumers.

Part 2: Information Analysis

1. Construct the Initial Causal Loop Diagram (CLD):
   • How to do it: Open a visual workspace. Start by placing the central relationship you confirmed from web searches: a variable for "UPF Consumption" connected by an arrow to a variable for "Prevalence of Metabolic Disorders."
   • Now, build out from there using your research. Add variables like "Corporate Marketing," "UPF Affordability/Availability," and "Public Health Regulations." Use your search data and interview insights to draw arrows showing influence. For example, consumer interviews might show that high "Work/Life Stress" leads to a greater need for "Convenience," which in turn drives "UPF Consumption." Add these variables and links to your map.
2. Identify Feedback Loops and Apply the 5 Whys:
   • How to do it: Look for circles in your diagram. For example, you will likely find a reinforcing loop: Higher "UPF Sales" lead to greater "Corporate Profits," which funds more "Marketing Spend" and "Investment in Palatability," which drives even higher "UPF Sales."
   • Now, pick a key arrow in that loop, like the one from "Marketing Spend" to "UPF Sales," and apply the 5 Whys.
     • 1. Why does marketing increase sales? Because it makes the products seem desirable and convenient.
     • 2. Why are these messages so effective? Because they tap into fundamental human needs for comfort, ease, and social status, often targeting moments of stress or fatigue revealed in interviews.
     • 3. Why are people so susceptible in those moments? Because modern lifestyles create frequent decision fatigue, making the easiest choice the most attractive.
     • 4. Why are UPFs the easiest choice? Because of their low cost and ubiquitous availability, a direct result of the industrial food system.
     • 5. Why has the system been optimized this way? Because the regulatory and economic environment has prioritized corporate profit and efficiency over public health outcomes.
   • This analysis takes you from a simple observation ("marketing works") to a deep root cause ("the system is designed to prioritize profit").
3. Synthesize to Generate Final Outputs:
   • Causal Relationship Model: Your completed CLD, annotated with insights from the 5 Whys analysis, serves as your final, detailed model. It visually maps the entire system.
   • Stakeholder Impact Analysis: Group the variables in your CLD by stakeholder (Consumers, Corporations, Governments/Public Health). Describe the role each one plays and the feedback loops they are a part of. For instance, "Corporations drive the primary reinforcing loop of consumption and profit, while government regulations currently act as a weak balancing force."
   • Intervention Strategy Recommendations: Examine your CLD to find "leverage points." These are places where an intervention can cause a ripple effect. For example:
     • Intervention Point: The link between marketing and consumption.
     • Proposed Action: Instead of a simple voluntary code, recommend mandatory "black box" warnings on the front of packages for foods high in sugar, fat, and with multiple "marker" additives, as implemented in some Latin American countries.
     • KPIs: A measurable decrease in sales volume for products requiring warning labels; a post-implementation survey showing an increase in consumer understanding of product health risks.