Detecting Bestselling Straw/Woven Bags in Western Markets

Business Research Proposal: Trend Monitoring Workflow for Straw/Woven Bags

• Part 1: Information Collection will focus on gathering raw signals from a wide range of digital sources.
• Part 2: Information Analysis will structure how to interpret these signals, make decisions, and initiate product development or curation.

Recommended Frameworks & Applicability

• Framework Teaching:
  • AIDA Model: This model describes the four stages a consumer goes through before making a purchase. We will adapt it to track a trend's lifecycle:
    1. Attention: A new style or product first appears, seen by a small, fashion-forward group.
    2. Interest: A wider audience becomes aware, and search activity and social media conversations begin to grow.
    3. Desire: The trend becomes aspirational, with high demand, "sold out" notices, and a clear "it" item status.
    4. Action: The trend reaches market saturation and mass adoption.
  • Jobs-to-be-Done (JTBD) Framework: This framework focuses on the underlying motivation or "job" a customer "hires" a product to do. Instead of seeing a bag as a set of features (e.g., "raffia, top handle"), we ask what functional, social, or emotional goal the customer is trying to achieve (e.g., "Help me feel effortlessly chic on my summer vacation," or "Carry all my essentials for a day at the beach without looking sloppy").
• Applicability Explanation:
  • The AIDA model is perfect for this project because your client's goal is to intervene before the "Action" stage. By structuring your monitoring system around the Attention and Interest stages, you can identify hits early. This framework provides a clear funnel to classify and escalate emerging trends.
  • The JTBD framework is crucial because the client plans to "design similar products." To create a successful product and not just a cheap copy, you must understand the consumer's core need. JTBD analysis will reveal pain points with the original trending product (e.g., "it's beautiful but snags my clothes," "I love the style but it's too expensive") that your client can solve, creating a more compelling offer.

Part 1: Information Collection Plan

1. Web Search & Monitoring Plan

• Platforms to Monitor:
  • Social Media (Daily): Focus on Instagram, TikTok, and Pinterest. These are the primary channels where trends emerge visually. Key accounts to follow include top fashion influencers (e.g., Chiara Ferragni, Aimee Song, Leonie Hanne), street style stars, and rising micro-influencers.
  • Fashion Publications & Blogs (Weekly): Monitor major online publications like Vogue Runway, The Business of Fashion, and established blogs like Atlantic-Pacific and The Fashion Guitar. These sources often provide context and legitimize trends seen on social media.
  • E-commerce Sites (Weekly): Track the "New Arrivals" and "Trending" sections of luxury retailers (e.g., Net-a-Porter, MyTheresa) and mid-market stores (e.g., Sezane, Reformation). Observe what is being heavily promoted or selling out.
  • Forums and Communities (Weekly): Scan discussions on platforms like Reddit's r/handbags and PurseForum for candid consumer conversations, "in search of" posts, and product reviews. This is a goldmine for understanding consumer desire and pain points.
• Keywords to Track:
  • Broad Keywords: Start with general terms to detect macro movements. Examples include "straw bag," "woven tote," "raffia bag," "beach bag," combined with the target year/season (e.g., "summer 2026").
  • Specific & Long-Tail Keywords: As potential trends emerge, track more specific terms. This includes product names ("Loewe basket bag"), style descriptors ("crochet tote," "woven bucket bag"), and user intent phrases ("what to wear for Italy vacation," "best bags for summer").
  • Action-Oriented Keywords: Monitor keywords that signal high desire, such as "[bag name] dupe," "restock," "waiting list," or "pre-owned."
• Purpose of Web Search:
  • The goal is to populate the top of our AIDA funnel. Mentions by influencers and on fashion blogs are "Attention" signals. Rising search volume for keywords and conversations on forums are "Interest" signals. This data provides the initial pool of potential trend candidates for deeper analysis.

2. User "Interview" Plan (Analysis of Online Content)

• Content Sources for Analysis:
  • Customer Reviews: On product pages of trending bags.
  • Social Media Comments: On influencer posts featuring specific bags.
  • Forum Threads: Dedicated to specific bags or brands (e.g., "Is the Bottega Veneta Cassette worth it?").
  • YouTube Reviews: Unboxing videos and "What's in my bag" content.
• Interview Purpose:
  • To understand the why behind the what. Why are consumers drawn to a particular bag? What job are they hiring it to do? The answers are critical for designing a superior "similar" product.
• Core Questions to Guide Content Analysis:
  • "What event or context is this bag being purchased for?" (e.g., a specific vacation, a summer event, daily use).
    • Analysis Purpose: This identifies the primary "Job-to-be-Done" (e.g., the job is 'succeeding on my vacation,' not 'carrying things').
  • "What specific features do users praise or complain about?" (e.g., "love the look but it's too heavy," "the strap is uncomfortable," "no secure pockets").
    • Analysis Purpose: This directly informs the product design brief by highlighting opportunities for improvement.
  • "What alternatives were considered? What were the final decision-making factors?" (e.g., price, brand prestige, size, uniqueness).
    • Analysis Purpose: This helps define the competitive landscape and key value propositions for the target customer.
  • "What words and feelings do users associate with the bag?" (e.g., "chic," "timeless," "fun," "boho").
    • Analysis Purpose: This provides the vocabulary for product positioning and marketing copy.

Part 2: Information Analysis & Workflow Implementation Plan

How to Analyze the Information

1. Establish a Trend Funnel (AIDA):
   • Attention Stage: A product manager logs any new bag style that is seen on a predefined number of "Tier 1" influencers or in major fashion publications. This becomes a "Trend Candidate."
   • Interest Stage: The candidate is now actively monitored. Using tools like Google Trends, you will track search volume for its associated keywords. You'll also monitor social media for an increase in user-generated posts and engagement.
   • Decision Point: A "Trend Alert" is triggered when a candidate meets a specific, predefined threshold (e.g., "search volume increases by 100% in one month AND is mentioned in 500+ new user posts").
2. Conduct JTBD Analysis for Alerted Trends:
   • Once a "Trend Alert" is triggered, the team must immediately perform the qualitative content analysis described in Part 1.
   • Synthesize the findings into a one-page "JTBD Brief." This brief must clearly define:
     1. The primary job the customer is hiring the bag for.
     2. The key struggles or "pain points" with the current trending product(s).
     3. The main drivers of desire (e.g., social status, aesthetic appeal, functionality).
3. Develop the Product/Curation Brief:
   • Translate the "JTBD Brief" into an actionable product directive. This brief is the final step in the analysis and the first step in execution.
   • This brief must contain:
     • Product Concept: "A medium-sized woven tote that fulfills the job of 'looking effortlessly chic for a European city summer' for the $150-250 price-point customer."
     • Key Design Mandates (Based on JTBD): "Must include a secure internal pocket for valuables. Strap must be leather-wrapped to prevent snagging on clothing. Must be lightweight enough for all-day wear."
     • Target Price & Margin: Specific targets for both entry-level and luxury segments.
     • Key Marketing Adjectives: A list of 5-10 words (e.g., "artisanal," "versatile," "elegant") to guide marketing.

Final Deliverables: The Comprehensive Workflow

1. The Trend Monitoring Rulebook: A document defining the precise thresholds for a "Trend Candidate" and a "Trend Alert," and the required monitoring frequency (daily, weekly).
2. Monitored Sources & Keywords List: A curated and tiered list of all platforms, influencer accounts, and keywords to be tracked.
3. JTBD-to-Product Brief Template: A fillable template that guides the product manager from qualitative analysis to a concrete design/curation brief.
4. Success Metrics Dashboard: A recommendation for KPIs to measure the system's effectiveness, such as "Trend Prediction Accuracy Rate" (percentage of alerted trends that become commercial successes) and "Time-to-Market Advantage" (days/weeks your client acts on a trend before competitors).