【Guy】You know, Ira, immigration policy usually puts people to sleep, but this new Trump H1B visa policy? It's like watching a slow-motion economic earthquake. We're talking about a $100,000 fee - that's more than most people's annual salary - just to hire a foreign tech worker. 【Ira】Wait, $100,000? That's not a typo? I mean, that's like buying a Tesla just to get permission to hire someone. And this goes into effect in September 2025? 【Guy】Exactly. And here's what makes this fascinating - Atypica.AI just completed this deep-dive analysis, and what they found challenges everything you think you know about protectionism. Because when you dig into who this actually hurts and helps, the story gets really complicated, really fast. 【Ira】Okay, so the obvious question is - this is supposed to protect American jobs, right? Make it too expensive for companies to hire foreigners, so they hire Americans instead? 【Guy】That's the theory. But Atypica discovered something pretty shocking. The companies that can actually afford this fee? They're not hiring more Americans. They're just moving the jobs overseas entirely. 【Ira】Huh. So instead of protecting American jobs, we're... exporting them? 【Guy】Bingo. And it gets weirder. Let me paint you a picture of what's happening right now in Silicon Valley. You've got Amazon with over 14,000 H1B workers, Google and Microsoft each with around 5,000. These companies are telling their H1B employees who are traveling abroad to get back to the US immediately because they're not sure if they'll be able to get back in. 【Ira】That sounds like panic. But wait - if Amazon has 14,000 H1B workers, they can afford to pay $100,000 per person, right? I mean, that's Amazon. 【Guy】Right, and that's exactly the problem Atypica identified. This policy creates what they call a "two-tiered system." Amazon, Google, Microsoft - they'll just absorb this as a cost of doing business. But startups? Small tech companies trying to compete? They're completely shut out. 【Ira】So it's like... the big guys get bigger, and the little guys get crushed? 【Guy】Exactly. Atypica interviewed this startup founder named Priya Patel, and she called the fee "crippling" and an "existential challenge." Think about it - a startup with five employees suddenly needs to pay $100,000 just to hire one specialized AI engineer from India or China. 【Ira】And where do most of these H1B workers come from? 【Guy】Here's where the international relations piece gets really interesting. 71% come from India, about 12% from China. So this policy is essentially targeting the two countries that produce the most tech talent in the world. 【Ira】That seems... diplomatically problematic? 【Guy】Oh, it is. Atypica talked to people in both countries, and the reaction is fascinating. In India, they're calling this a "direct blow." But here's the twist - instead of just complaining, both India and China are seeing this as an opportunity. 【Ira】An opportunity how? 【Guy】Brain drain reversal. All these brilliant engineers and scientists who would have come to Silicon Valley? Now they're staying home or going to Canada, Australia, the UK. Countries that are rolling out the red carpet for exactly the talent we're pushing away. 【Ira】So we're basically... giving our competitors our best people? 【Guy】That's what the research suggests. And Atypica found something even more concerning. They interviewed tech executives who said they're already planning to move R&D operations overseas. Not because they want to, but because that's where they can access the talent they need. 【Ira】Wait, so the policy designed to keep jobs in America is actually pushing jobs out of America? 【Guy】Exactly. It's like trying to keep water in a bucket by making the bucket more expensive. The water just finds another container. 【Ira】Okay, but surely there must be some economic logic here. What did Atypica find about the real motivations behind this policy? 【Guy】This is where it gets really interesting. They identified three main drivers. First, there's the obvious political signaling - appealing to voters who feel threatened by foreign competition. Second, and this surprised me, it's a massive revenue generator. If you do the math on all those H1B applications, we're talking hundreds of millions in government fees. 【Ira】So it's partly just... a money grab? 【Guy】Well, that's one way to look at it. But the third motivation is where Atypica's analysis gets really nuanced. There's this belief that if you make foreign workers expensive enough, companies will be forced to invest in training American workers or developing automation. 【Ira】And does that actually work? 【Guy】According to the research, no. And here's why - Atypica found that we're not talking about jobs that can be easily filled by just anyone. We're talking about quantum computing researchers, AI specialists, people with very specific, very rare skills. 【Ira】So it's not like there's a bunch of unemployed Americans who just happen to be quantum computing experts? 【Guy】Exactly. One immigration attorney they interviewed said it best - this policy is based on a "flawed economic theory" that ignores how specialized modern tech work really is. 【Ira】So what happens next? I mean, if this policy is as counterproductive as the research suggests, what are the alternatives? 【Guy】Atypica actually looked at this systematically. They studied immigration systems in Canada, Australia, the UK - countries that are eating our lunch right now in terms of attracting global talent. And they found some really smart approaches. 【Ira】Like what? 【Guy】Well, instead of a flat $100,000 fee for everyone, you could have a tiered system. Startups pay less, or maybe nothing. Large corporations pay more. Or you tie the fee to the salary - if you're paying someone $200,000, you can afford a higher fee than if you're paying $80,000. 【Ira】That makes sense. What else? 【Guy】Points-based systems, like Canada has. Instead of just "can you pay the fee," it's "do you have the skills we actually need?" Education, experience in critical shortage areas, that kind of thing. Much more strategic. 【Ira】And I assume the research found that other countries are already doing this better than we are? 【Guy】Oh yeah. Canada's been aggressively marketing to H1B workers, basically saying "come north, we want you." Australia's doing the same thing. The UK has these new talent visas specifically designed to attract the people we're pushing away. 【Ira】So while we're building walls, they're building bridges? 【Guy】That's a great way to put it. And here's what really struck me about Atypica's research - they talked to actual H1B workers, people whose lives are being turned upside down by this. One guy, Ethan Wu, said he's already looking at opportunities in Toronto and London because the US just feels too unreliable now. 【Ira】And these are exactly the people we want to keep, right? The innovators, the entrepreneurs? 【Guy】Right. And that's the ultimate irony here. In trying to protect American competitiveness, we might be destroying it. Atypica's analysis suggests we're heading toward a "brain drain" scenario where the world's best and brightest just... go somewhere else. 【Ira】You know what's fascinating about this research? It shows how a policy that sounds simple - charge more money - can have all these ripple effects that nobody anticipated. 【Guy】Absolutely. And I think that's what makes Atypica's approach so valuable. They didn't just look at the policy in isolation. They mapped out all the stakeholders, all the unintended consequences, all the ways this plays out in the real world. 【Ira】So if you're a policymaker listening to this, what's the takeaway? 【Guy】I think it's that immigration policy in a global economy is like performing surgery with a sledgehammer. You might hit your target, but you're going to cause a lot of collateral damage. The research suggests we need much more precise, strategic tools. 【Ira】And if you're a tech company? 【Guy】Start planning now. Whether you're a startup looking at international expansion or a big company thinking about where to locate your next R&D center, this policy is going to reshape the entire landscape of global talent. 【Ira】Well, this has been eye-opening. Thanks to Atypica.AI for this research, and thanks to all of you for listening. Sometimes the most important stories are the ones that help us understand the unintended consequences of the decisions we make. 【Guy】Absolutely. Until next time, keep asking the hard questions about the policies that shape our world.